# Decision of Uncertainly of Visiting Kenya essay

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After my graduation, I will travel to Kenya for leisure. During my research, I found out that Kenta has amazing monuments, mountains, amazing cultural dances and many wild animals. I would like to witness the wildebeest migration in Maasai Mara national park as it is currently recognized as one of the wonders of the world.   Kenya is having its elections this year and the post election violence that was experienced there five years ago is worrying me much. All I keep wondering is whether the same scenario will happen again this year. The decision of uncertainty requires me to choose between traveling to the amazing Kenya or visit other less amazing countries. (Kenya Postel Directories Limited. 2005)

Research

To come up with an accurate decision, I researched and found out that the probability of having a great vacation in Kenya is 0.8 from Kenya tourism Data base. As per the InfotrackEast Africa Ltd statistics, the probability of there being another post-election violence in Kenya is 10%.

Interpretation of Data Applying Bayes’ Theorem

I opted to use Bayes' theorem as the probability model as measures a degree of belief and confidence in possible conclusions when there is presented evidence (Lind, Marchal & Wathen, 2008). I therefore use the model in order to predict my confidence levels of the best country to visit. I find it appealing to use Bayes' theorem as the probability model rather than hypothesis testing due to the nature of evidence. (Regina &Johnson, 1971).

Probability Concepts for Limiting Uncertainty

Research shows that the probability of having a good time in Kenya is 0.8; hence chances of not enjoying are 0.2. As per the Infrotrack statistics, the probability of another occurrence of violence in Kenya is 0.1 hence the probability of the country being violence free around that time is 0.9.

Tabulating the data helps in achieving a better decision.

 Event Enjoying The Vacation Not Enjoying The Vacation Violence occurrence No violence Visiting Kenya 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.9

Enjoying in Kenya=C1, so probability is, P(C1)=0.8

Not enjoying in Kenya=C2, so probability is, P(C2)=0.2

Probability of visiting Kenya and finding peace is, P(B|C1) = 0.9

Probability of visiting Kenya and finding violence is P(B|C2) is= 0.1

According to Bayes model,

P(C1/B) = P(C1)P(B|C1) divide by P(C1)P(B|C1) + P(C2)P(B|C2)

= (0.8)(0.90) divide by ((0.8)(0.90)+(0.10)(0.20))

=0.973

As per the calculations, the probability of having a super nice time in Kenya has risen from 0.8 to 0.973

Statistical Rationale behind Decision

Due to the cheaper costs and amazing sceneries in Kenya, it is the best place to visit. Although there was violence during the last election, no tourists were harmed (Simon, Gatimu, 2007). Now that the leaders who led to that crisis have been prosecuted in the International Criminal Court, they will no longer vie for government offices hence the country has high chances of being calm during the process. I will visit Kenya during the December holidays as statistical data shows that the visit will be safe and enjoyable.