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Consumption in India

Although only 5% of India’s population can be currently classified as middle class, this number is expected to rise to over 40% before 2025. The country is well positioned for a major expansion in its domestic consumption that is expected to make India one of the world’s major consumers. Nonetheless, most people in India fear that this increase in spending power might in the long run compromise India’s capacity to invest. Consumption is projected to rise even further if the economic growth maintains a long-term path of 7 -8 % as real consumption will develop from Rs 17 trillion currently to Rs 70 trillion by the year 2025. India’s consumer market currently ranks 12th internationally but with the current trend in consumption, its position might shoot to 5th place in world’s consumer markets exceeding Germany. India is now on a virtuous long term cycle whereby soaring incomes propel consumption which then increases business opportunities and more employment. These factors consequently increase the GDP and the income growth (Roy, 2005).

Considerable growth in consumption is not reliant on an equally important reduction in savings. Increased consumption is driven by three main factors; increasing incomes (which account for 80% of the overall growth), population expansion (which account for 16% of the total increase in consumption), and finally savings (which is expected to account for only 4% of the future consumption growth). Household savings rate in India is expected to climax and slowly reduce from the current standing at 28% of disposable income to 22% in 2025 since the country’s demographics will become more youthful (Virmani, 2005).


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Capital markets are markets which people and firms trade financial securities. Firms in both the public and private sectors at times sell securities in the capital markets with an aim of raising funds. Lately, capital markets in India have been on the lime light globally, mostly from potential investors, caused by the flourishing macroeconomic fundamentals. The availability of skilled labour and the quick integration with the global economy raised India’s international competitiveness. The Indian securities market is supervised by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The body has a mandate to protect investors and develop the capital markets (Mund, 2007).

A vibrant capital market in India serves to impress and entice potential investors and companies from all major and developed countries each year. Indian investors are also encouraged to invest. More investment in the country will translate to higher GDP and thereby increased income. This will result to a growth in the economy of India which then improves the living standards of the people of India.

In preparation to attain a US$ 225 billion economic industry by 2020, the information technology (IT) sector in India has played a fundamental role in ensuring that the Indian economy thrives globally. This sector together with the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry has become among the most important growth drivers for the economy of India. Together with propelling India’s economy, the IT industry also positively affect the lives of Indians by active contribution to several socio-economic parameters. These parameters include employment, standard of living and diversity. The industry has played an important role in changing the image of India from a sluggish bureaucratic economy to a region of pioneering entrepreneurs. It also provides world class technology solutions and business services. Good economic growth, fast advancement in technology infrastructure, progressively competitive Indian firms and enhanced focus by the government help provide IT to new customer drives increased technology adoption in India.

In the 1990s, India witnessed remarkable transformations in policy and the letting loose of Indian enterprise. This later developed and in 2000 private Indian enterprise came into its own. Between the years 2000 to 2010, the private corporate sector surpassed the public industry both in stipulations of net sales and net profits. The private sector's allocation in the net sales of manufacturing and services sector output increased significantly from 49%  in 2000-01 to 69% in 2009-10, and the public industry’s share accordingly falling from 51% to 31%.  In the same way, the private industry’s share of net profit in the non-agricultural market rose from 39% to 64% for that period. Likewise, there was a reduction in public sector’s share from 61% to 36%.

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Past times have seen the mixed economy of India emerge to be a fundamentally private enterprise economy. Increasing numbers of entrepreneurs have acquired a global path and are driving the growth progression in India. Several factors, including rise of Indian enterprise, especially in the energy, telecommunications, civil aviation, manufacturing, finance and banking and information technology sectors help to drive growth. Additionally, the rapid increase in foreign direct investment during this period has also fuelled the increase in the share of the private sector in national income, sales and overall profits.

Both India and China are adjunct nations with renowned ancient civilization. For over two thousand years they have maintained economic, cultural and political ties which are not common for two countries to share such amicable relation for such a lengthy time. India since 1992 and China since 1978 have experienced a duration of fast economic development with their productive systems being accompanied by very significant structural adjustments, as well as rigorous and greatly unattended social constrains. In recent years both India and China the rising Asian giants, have attained major economic growth. Since 1981, both countries have enjoyed high annual GDP growth rates with China attaining 10% annually while India attained 6% (Ministry of economic affairs, 2011). Periodically, when India and China’s GDP growth was decomposed between 1981 and 2004 the three factors contribution disclosed that technology has significantly enhanced GDP growth in both economies mainly in 1990s. Further information from R& D productivity (service exports, licensed patents from USPTO and high tech exports), and inputs (human capital and R&D expenditure) reveals that the two countries have committed themselves to R&D and their production is quite effective.

Three hundred years back before the Industrial Revolution, world’s economic production was dominated by Chindia. For the first time in centuries, Chindia and Russia were responsible for 50% global outputs in 2007. Chindia is becoming a form of multi-polar world with economic centers of production and productivity for both East and West, in an intricate interaction of division of labor in countries across the world.

In the current economic transition through Chindia, developed countries especially the US, are acting as storehouse of technological prowess, managerial capacity, technical skills and invention hot beds. The emergence of Chindia is not only foreseeable, but will be of great global significance. Through active engagement in development of consumer markets in Chindia, the developed economies of European Union, United States, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Singapore, and Australia, benefits through organized services and retailing including health care, education, mobile phones, consumer finance as well as hotels (Holz, 2005). They will also gain through investments in manufacturing sector especially through automobile and appliances, and also in industrial infrastructure such as seaports, roads, airports, electricity and other Utilities.

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The rise of Chindia growth can be likened to the US rise at the end of 19th century and beginning of 20th century. The US GDP increased from a low rate of 8% of Western Europe size in 1820, to as high as 27 % in 1870 and a subsequent rise to 62% by 1913. Its share of global production of pig-iron soared from 16% to 32% within the period of 1875-79 and 1895-99, as well as its rise in world’s share in production of steel from 26% to 35%. There was a remarkable increase in production of steel, as it grew from 17X to attain 1.25 million tones between 1870 and 1880, a well as 714X rise from 1870 to 1929 to reach 50 million tones. Chindia’s production of steel has risen by at least 8X between 1979 and 2004(China’s contribution is about 7.8X). World’s trade and markets have been deeply impacted by growth of US capacity of production. There was a decline of British exports to United States as a share of overall exports from 17.9% to 10% between 1850 and 1899.

Lack of labor supply was a major element of US growth and thus, subsequent growth of immigration provided reliable supply of labor to the global emerging industry of the day. Global deflation was a notable result of increased American production.  A remarkable rise in US urbanization level was another element that impacted on US growth. The rate of population moving to urban areas surged from 17.9% to 45.7% between 1870 and 1910. There was a significant rise in land values in newly urbanized areas, despite the availability of sufficient land in the country. Chindia growth is anticipated to be much faster and higher that the US due to large labor supply and increasing domestic consumption.

Over the last 30 years China and India have recoded rapid economic growth and increase in Real GDP each year. This section will look at both China and India recent economic growth rates and real GDP figures. The section will then go ahead to analyze the sustainability of these growth and the GDP projections expected in Chindia in the future years.

 Since China integrated its economic reforms in 1979, China’s real GDP, has been growing at an average annual rate of 9.7%. The economy of China was 11 times larger in 2005 compared to how it was in 1979, and 8 times bigger in real GDP (Pongsac, 2007).

From the year 2006 up to date, China’s economy has grown significantly at a rate of 10% per annum. In 2010, China GDP stood at $5.87 trillion; this exceeded the second world largest economy, Japan. Its GDP for the same year valued at $5.47 trillion.

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If China continues to indicate these growth figures and consistency, then it’s on its way towards being the next economic giant. To have a better understanding on these, we will look at GDP per capita trends in China.

GDP per capita is one of the best indicators of economic progress in a country. It indicates how vibrant the economic growth is and expected to take shape in the future. GDP hit a record USD 2705 (USD1=RMB7) in the year 2007, providing further evidence of the growth potential of the Chinese market. This growth continued despite the many attempts by the central government to cool down the economy after pressure from the international community.  For us to compile a comparable time series data set for GDP per capita. I review raw data: the national GDP per capita, which is comparable to the rest of the world and which is consistent over time

In a period of the last five years, India has grown to be the best free-market economy, with its annual growth of GDP being an average of 8% between 2003 and 2008. India is distinctive case among the developing economies owing to its strong, stable and self-sustaining economy whose growth does not overly depend on external trade. From the graph below, India real GDP has been on average 8% for the last 5 years. GDP per capital increase has been on the same trend as China. The growth is very similar to the real GDP growth in China and on combination the two nation poise to be the next economic giants in the world.

India Recent Economic Statistics 

Recent economic indicators: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(a) 2011(b)
GDP (US$bn) (current prices) (c): 908.5 1,152.8 1,251.4 1,264.9 1,632.0 1,843.4
GDP PPP (US$bn) (d): 2,748.9 3,111.3 3,377.1 3,643.8 4,057.8 4,469.8
GDP per capita (US$): 807 1,009 1,081 1,077 1,371 1,527
GDP per capita PPP (US$) (d): 2,441 2,724 2,916 3,104 3,408 3,703
Real GDP growth (% change yoy) (c): 9.5 10.0 6.2 6.8 9.9 7.4
Current account balance (US$m): -9,299 -8,077 -24,870 -35,766 -42,807 -40,274
Current account balance (% GDP): -1.0 -0.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2
Goods & services exports (% GDP): 21.3 20.9 24.4 20.7 21.4 23.7
Inflation (% change yoy): 6.3 6.4 8.3 10.9 12.0 10.6

Compiled by the Market Information and Research Section, DFAT, using the latest data from the ABS, the IMF and various international sources

The section below will look at recent nominal and real GDP growth on both countries comparably.

Table below presents data on nominal historical GDP levels, nominal year-on-year GDP growth, implicit GDP price deflators, and real year-on-year growth in GDP for China and India.

Projection of future GDP is done through analysis of recent GDP growth rates; is it sustainable in the future? What will the figure be between today and 2050? In this section we will analyze GDP projections through literature review of studies conducted on Chindia projection in the future. Chindia has been the economic growth engine of Asian economies. Today, Chindia is responsible for 38% of global population, though basing on PPP only 21% of global GDP while nominal basis accounts for only 6%.However by 2025, these rates are anticipated to rise to 36% and 11% correspondingly.

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The disparity between GDP of Chindia putting it as a percentage of overall global total, and its population when put as a percentage of the total; imply that economic development will not be constrained by low labor supply. Analysts believe that the economic growth that Chindia is experiencing is similar to the one that US encountered towards the end of 19th century and therefore, the development cycle will probably protract itself a few more decades, despite the economic strains that the cycle may bring along the way (Ahya et al, 2006).

The Chinese and Indian growth of the economy is projected to continue improving. Over a long period of time, China and India have recorded great figures in growth. In the Chinese case, a 10% growth has been attained. A primary factor in this growth is the inclusion of escalating numbers of people in the productive business processes. This way, the public at large can trade poorly paid work in areas that are overpopulated or in the informal urban economy for employment that are more viable to the economy, more so, in the industry. Both the Chinese and the Indian economies are now very dynamic and this can be seen by; the new infrastructure and maintenance being setup fast, an increase in the number of engineering graduates each year, high production of cars and motor scooters, rising numbers of returning migrants captivated by the new job opportunities.

China is forecasted to have an annual GDP growth of 7-10% and 8-9% for India in the foreseeable future. Chindia’s nominal GDP is projected to rise to 6.3 trillion US dollars by 2020, which is a 10.5% global share, an almost threefold increase from present levels. The table below shows GPD projections of top economies to 2050 and how the ranks will change. 

By 2050 China and India will overtake the US to become the world two largest economies with China ranking number one with a GDP of 59, 475 billion in US dollars and India second with a GDP 43,180 billion US dollars at purchasing power parity, against the US which will rank third with a GDP of 37, 876 billion US dollars at purchasing power parity rankings. Thus according to projections of GDP from 2009 to 2050, its valid to claim that Chindia will be the next economic power by 2050 with a GDP of 102, 655 billion US dollars at purchasing power parity, bigger than the US by 64779 billion US dollars at purchasing power parity. To further validate the claim, projected average GDP growth rate for China and India 2009 to 2050 is 5.9% and 8.1% respectively, much higher than US, Germany, and Japan average real GDP growth of 2.4%, 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. These indicate that Chindia will be the next economic giant in the world by 2050. The section below will look at other GDP projection of Chindia in between the years up to 2050.

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According to Wolf et al (2011), review of current and forecasted Real GDP growth rates of India and China indicate that the rapid growth experienced in those countries is highly sustainable in the years ahead, but it will be in a slower rate. The growth rates are expected to average around 5.7% and 5.6% in China and India respectively between 2020 and 2025.

During the period very same period, average estimates of accumulated stock capital growth are projected to be 6.1% and 6.9% in China and India respectively. Employment growth rate will be higher in India at an average estimate of 1.6% compared to 0.4% in China. On total factor productivity, forecasted estimates were 3.4% and 2.1% respectively for China and India. The average growth rates of China and India will be almost equal for the next 15 years from 2010, however the increase in will be accompanied by an increase will be in favor of China, since at the moment at the moment China’s GDP is almost three times India GDP. In 2007, China’s GDP was $1.4 trillion larger than India’s GDP; however by 2025 the GDP gap is forecasted to be an estimated to be $4.4 trillion assuming Chindia economy continue to grow at the estimated yearly growth rate of around 5-7% (Wolf et al, 2011).

China-IndiaMacroeconomic Meta-Analysis: Summary of Salient Estimates, 2020 –2025

GDP                               TFP                         Employment                      Capital 

  China India   China India   China India   China India
Mean 5.7 5.6   3.4 2.1   0.4 1.6   6.1 6.9
Max 9.0 8.4   5.6 3.6   0.6 1.9   9.4 9.8
Min 3.8 2.8   2.1 0.n1   – 0.1 0.7   4.2 3.9
Variance 2.2 2.3   1.0 1.0   0.0 0.1   2.1 2.5
n (obs) 28 26   28 26   28 26   28 26
n (studies)           27          

NB: Growth rates are in % per year. the no of observations do not match the total number of studies. Reason studies provide estimates for either China or India but not both.

Wolf et al (2011) study is highly reliable since it was conducted through a meta-analysis of around 27 studies conducted between 2000 and 2008 on Chindia recent economic growth and the prospective levels of GDP growth rates, and demographic trends in the years ahead spanning up to 2050. Most of these studies had explicit projections of Chindia GDP and demographic trend up to 2025.

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Most economic analyst project that China could maintain a GDP growth rate of around 8% for more than 30 years to come based on various indicators. By comparing China today with Japans economic condition around 1960 when it was at its take off stage the indicators of future growth are remarkably similar.

Comparing China and Japan Precondition to take off

Life expectancy (years)

Female: 72 / Male: 68


Female: 72.9 / Male: 67.7


Infant mortality rate (per thousand)





Primary sector as a share of GDP (%)





Engel's coefficient in urban areas (%)





Per capital electricity consumption (kwh)





GDP growth experienced in Japan following the take off stage in 1960 was immense and vibrant, driving Japan 2 second largest economy in the world until it was overtaken by Japan in 2010. If the preconditions for takeoff are similar in both China and Japan are similar, then China is on its way towards vibrant economic growth, even much higher due to demographic advantages in the future years. The conditions do not differ much with those of India and thus both China and India are on their way towards much vibrant economic growth. GDP figures and GDP per capita projections are high indicator that Chindia will be the next world economic power bigger than the United States and Euro zone (Holz, 2005).

The World Bank estimates indicate that Chindia will account for more than 20% of global income by 2025, a fraction which  higher than the 19% of the United States and that the euro zone income contribution that year. Currently U.S contribute 24% and Euro zone 22% of global income.  

Poverty is also expected to reduce further in Chindia over the next 30 years. Although China and India still posses developing countries characters, poverty is reducing in China dramatically and is expected to diminish further. However, many individuals still live below $1.25-$2 a day which the World Bank has set as the international poverty line. In India, one of the largest producers of food in the world, more than a million children die from poverty each year. The UN estimates that about 1/5 of its total population is persistently hungry. The distribution of income in both countries is increasingly unequal.

Policy under implementation on the two countries is aimed at improving the position of poorer population groups. More attention for education, healthcare, housing, infrastructure and environmental management will lead to a better income and wealth distribution. Ongoing specialization and upgrading will strengthen competition. Global trade and foreign investment are foundational in the globalization process, together with migrant flows and internet traffic. As global production has risen, global trade has increased in the same period. This includes trade in raw materials, intermediate products and finished products.

China is a low-wage state that has taken up the role of international assembling centre for most electronic products. With regards to the use of English among the professional population, India has become a world player in the field of software development. Further economic specialization and upgrading of production will take place in both countries. This will bring about more international competition and transform the Chindia to the next economic top competitor in the world.

The level of poverty in Chindia as a trait of developing economies is further anticipated to fall. China in particular, poverty will most probably diminish further despite the fact that many people have less than two dollars a day to spend and many don’t have 1.25 dollars earning per day as set by the World Bank to be the international poverty line. On the other hand, India being one of the major global producers of food, more than one million young ones dies of poverty every year and a fifth of the total population is constantly hungry according to UN estimates.        

Estimates conducted on long term basis indicate that progressive economic growth will be experienced across the globe.  Poverty is expected to fall in Chindia immensely to 2050 an attribute of a rising economic power.

Chindia has the largest majority of consumers on earth. Sustainable production and consumption refers to efficient use of goods and services in an economy which provide the required basic needs and improve living standards, while at the same time minimize use of now renewable natural resources, toxic waste and pollutants over the years so as to have an enlarging economic future or jeopardize future generation needs. China has emerged as an export driven economy attributed to its enormous industrial sector while India is driven by its vast the IT sector services and large domestic consumption market.  Private consumption is expanding rapidly in China and India. 

The most important driver of economic growth in future in Chindia will be domestic consumption. This is highly possible due to ongoing population and income growth, poverty reduction, and retail spending as individuals feels they are wealthier. The mythical over 2.5 billion domestic customers Chindia is expected to have will probably be the largest consumption market in the world making Chindia the next economic giants. In the case of China, domestic consumption as a share of GDP was less than 10 % and in 2006 personal consumption averaged 36% of total GDP.  Despite the fact that domestic consumption is the third most important driver of the economy it’s expected to be the most effective and vital drivel of Chinese economy in the future. In terms of domestic consumption, India will have an upper hand compared to China in the next 30 years, owing to the fact that population growth in India will be higher than China in the next 20 years. Chindia will have a critical mass by 2050 making it the world largest market and due to the large domestic consumption; Chindia will be able to continue economic development on its own. Low labor cost and huge domestic market in both China and India force most global companies to make Chindia their home for continued economic success and major consumptions of their products and services. The foreign direct investment is projected to increase rapidly in Chindia due to the large consumption market expected in the future as a result of population growth. This will largely contribute to the rise of Chindia as the next economic power by 2050.

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Hundreds of millions of new Chinese and Indian consumers are bond to ignite an investment and spending boom in the future. The rise of this huge middle class will feed a rapidly growing demand for household products and the raw materials used to make them. 

China’s export growth has been accompanied by tremendous growth in product variety. While China was present in 9 percent of all manufacturing product categories in 1972, it was present in 70 percent of categories by 2001 (Schott 2007). Chinese growth has mainly been export driven and labor intensive manufacturing activities. In 2008, export accounted for 32% of GDP. Million of employees in China are employed in the export sector.

  2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 266.1 325.6 438.2 593.3 762.0 968.9 1,217.8 1,430.7 1,201.6 1,577.9
% change      6.8   22.4   34.6   35.4   28.4   27.2   25.7   17.5   -16.0   31.3
Imports 243.6 295.2 412.8 561.2 660.0 791.5 956.0 1,132.5 1,005.9 1,394.8
% change      8.2   21.2   39.8   35.9   17.6   19.9   20.8   18.5   -11.2   38.7
Total 509.7 620.8 851.0 1,154.6 1,421.9 1,760.4 2,173.7 2,563.3 2,207.5 2,972.8
% change      7.5   21.8   37.1    35.7   23.2    23.8   23.5   17.9   -13.9   34.7
Balance   22.6   30.4   25.5   32.1 102.0 177.5 261.8 298.1 195.7 183.1

China’s trade with the world has been increasing at a very rapid rate. From the table above, since 2001 China Export have rose from 266.1 billion US dollars in 2001 to 1577.9 billion US dollars in 2010. The average export increase has been 21.33% annually. If the trend has made China the world largest exporter today and the trend is expected to rise in the future.  Imports have risen from 243.6 to 1394.8 billion US dollars in 2010. The table also indicates that China has had surplus balance of payment (BOP) all through the last 10 years. This has been unlike other major economies like the US.  The trend is expected to rise in the future at a relative lower rate but still be a major driver to economic progress of China. China has been the main export of electrical machinery, equipment and power generation equipment to the United State of America.

HS# Commodity description Volume %change over 2009
85 Electrical machinery and equipment 90.8                           24.5
84 Power generation equipment 82.7                           32.5
61, 62 Apparel 28.8                           18.1
95 Toys, games, and sports equipment 25.0                             7.7
94 Furniture 20.0                           24.5
64 Footwear and parts thereof 15.9                           19.4
39 Plastics and articles thereof    9.6                           20.1
72, 73 Iron and steel 8.4                             4.4
42 Leather and travel goods    7.5                           24.4
90 Optics and medical equipment 7.0                           25.7


Rank Country/region Volume % change over 2009
1 Japan 176.7                              35.0
2 South Korea 138.4                              35.0
3 Taiwan 115.7                              35.0
4 United States 102.0                              31.7
5 Germany   74.3                              33.4
6 Australia   60.9                              54.1
7 Malaysia   50.4                              55.9
8 Brazil   38.1                              34.7
9 Thailand   33.2                              33.3
10 Saudi Arabia   32.8                              39.2

The export market in India is developing fast. Evidently, the IT products and services offered have rapidly increased between 1997 and 2003. The export sector’s growth is mainly fuelled by industries like chemicals and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, textiles and garments, gems and jewellery. The government together with commercial banks has put up measures to improve exports.

India mainly exports animals, milk and milk products, wheat, rice, coffee, tea, spices, cumin seed, tamarind powder, sesame seed, sugar, henna, herbal extract, medicines, fertilizers, chemicals, salt, iron ores, minerals, books, leather products, textile, dyes and pigments, home furnishing, footwear, brass items, Aluminium items, sanitary wear, ceramic, glassware, flanges, fittings, embroidered and Zari items, pipe and pipe fittings, handicraft, cables, medical disposables, laboratory equipments, surgical equipments, sports goods, wooden furniture among other engineering and electrical products. On the other hand India imports: Cereals and preparations, Fertilizers, Edible Oil, Sugar, Pulp and waste paper, Paper, Newsprint, Crude rubber, Non-ferrous Metals, Metalliferrous ores and metal scrap, Iron and Steel, Crude Petroleum and petroleum products, Pearls, Precious and Semi-Precious stones, Machinery, Project Goods, Pulses, Coal and its derivatives, Non-metallic, Organic & Inorganic chemicals, Dyeing, tanning material, Medicinal products and Pharmaceutical products, Artificial resins, yarn & fabrics(silk, cotton, wool), electronic goods, wood and wood products, gold and silver, essential oils, computer software, etc.

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Bilateral trade between China and India has been growing tremendously.  Bilateral trade surpassed US$ 38.6 billion in 2007 bigger that the projected target of US$ 20 billion set for 2008. Exports from India to China include organic chemicals, cotton, iron, steel, and inorganic chemicals. India imports from China are more in electrical machinery and equipment, organic chemicals, mineral fuels, oil, and oil products.  Bilateral trade in Chindia have rose from less than $1 billion in 2001 to $38.6 billion today and the figures are expected to double in the next 10 years. More Chinese firms have continued to establish their presence in India over the last 10 years, as more India companies continue to plant their roots in India. The expanding cooperation between China and India will be a defining trend in Asia in the future.  The two economies will account for up to 50% of global consumption of basic commodities including 35% of incremental global demand for energy in the next 30 years.  Chindia will be the largest producers and consumers of coal, cement, steel, and non-ferrous materials. Trends of trade in Chindia and the outside world indicate that their balance of trade is highly sustainable.

According to Hong Kong-based investment group CLSA, Chindia will become the largest exporter of manufactured goods and services by 2050. Chindia will have the largest consumer market of over 2.5 billion consumers in the same period. To create employment for the largely increasing population, Chindia will have to enlarge the export sector which offers employment to millions of workers. On the other hand to supply services and goods to the large population imports will also have to increase rapidly. Chindia will have the largest share in world trade by 2050.



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