1. (a). Data presentation in a better wayWe first of all come up with a table of the results and then us it to design the appropriate presentation format which in our case is a plot of bar graphs for ease of comparison and analysisLooking at the data given here, there is a clear indication that for the number of quarters analyzed here, there has been a steady increase in the number of dropouts. The greatest dropout was that for the group that started in April 2009. Should this go unchecked, there is a likelihood of too few completions which will reduce the Information Technology manpower that is so much needed. At the moment, almost half of the enrolled students do not complete their course.(b)Forecast of the expectations in the next quarter of the yearSimple moving average method
was used where
a 2-year simple moving average was considered. Due to absence of start, we guess the first value, obtain the second using naïve forecasting before embarking on obtaining the averages. (1)
This forecast was a guess for a startThe forecast was made using a naïve approach.From here, forecasts were made on a year-by-year basis.Average of July and April dropoutsAverage October and July dropoutsAverage October and January dropoutsAverage January and April dropoutsAverage April and July dropoutsAverage October and July dropoutsAverage October and January dropoutsAverage January and April dropoutsAverage April and July dropoutsAverage October and July dropouts
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Average October and January dropoutsAverage January and April dropoutsAverage April and July dropoutsAverage October and July dropouts This is the forecast of the next quarter (c)Comment on the results and reliability of the chosen modelThe outcome of the forecast as calculated is 16 which is in the range of the previous values. The reason for the choice of the model is reliability in that it does not only forecast the next value but it also allows us to put in mind the trend before our situation (Inoue & Kilian 2003). This trend makes our model and outcome of the forecast reliable. Whatever has been happening all through the period is bound to replicate should there be no much changes to the way of doing things. Therefore it is very important to consider the previous outcomes and the trends (2).1. (a) Plot a scatter diagram relating the results in the Aptitude test
to the weighted figure based on previous academic
achievements. Give a reason for the choice of your Dependent and
Independent variables.To be in a position to plot the scatter diagram we need to organize our data in a sequential format in order to analyze and come up with a plot that is reliable and consistent. Here is a table of the values obtained from the previous tests, qualification test and the aptitude test against the arbitrary number of the student. (3)Previous resultsQualification testThe main reason of choosing previous academic results and aptitude test results as the independent variable is because they are tha values to be compated while the student number which actually represents the student is what determines the position of the mark . (4)(b) Calculate a suitable parameter to investigate how closely related the two variables are. Comment on your findings.